Over the past few weeks, the global news cycle has become so frenetic that even tectonic shifts in NATO barely register. Amid the chaos of trade wars and shifting geopolitical alliances, something equally consequential is happening much closer to home. And almost no one is talking about it.
While national headlines are glued to international drama, Reform UK is quietly preparing for a breakthrough in local and regional government. According to recent MRP polling, the party could emerge as the largest in eight councils in the upcoming local elections. If elections weren’t postponed in several areas due to ongoing reorganisation linked to the Government’s English Devolution reforms, that number might be even higher.
In fact, if all local elections were proceeding as planned, Reform UK would be on track to win more councillors than the Conservatives: 697 to 688. That’s a jaw-dropping turnaround for a party that didn’t win a single ward in these areas in 2021.Dig a little deeper, and it gets even more startling. The Conservatives’ vote share is collapsing, down by nearly half compared to 2021 (admittedly a strong year for them). Reform UK is vacuuming up the fallout, turning discontent into real, quantifiable political power.
The mayoral races are just as intriguing. Four are in play in May: two established mayoralties (West of England and Cambridgeshire & Peterborough) and two new ones created by the latest devolution deals – Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Riding. Reform will be especially focused on the latter two, where they performed strongly in last year’s general election. In Lincolnshire, they’ve even fielded one of their heaviest hitters: former Conservative minister Andrea Jenkyns.
All of this is happening just as these new mayoralties are about to inherit significant powers over housing, infrastructure, innovation, transport, and long-term local economic strategies. The implications are enormous. If Reform UK captures one or more of these combined authorities, they won’t just be gaining councillors. They’ll be gaining control of strategic levers that can shape whole regions.
Reform will also be quietly encouraged by polling in areas where elections have been postponed due to their inclusion in the Government’s devolution priority programme. These councils are set to join strategic authorities, with mayoral elections planned for 2026. And the numbers there are even more striking: had elections gone ahead this year, Reform would have comfortably secured the largest number of councillors in several of these areas. Keep an eye on next year’s races in Greater Essex and Norfolk & Suffolk, both regions where Reform is already polling as the largest party.
For anyone working with or lobbying local and regional governments, this is more than a political curiosity.
Take Hull & East Riding: if Reform wins there, they’ll be a major stakeholder in the £650 million Humber Freeport. And with AI Growth Zones, new towns, affordable housing sites and other Government initiatives increasingly devolved, the prospect of Reform UK managing billions in public-private investment is suddenly very real.
Farage might be divisive, but he understands optics. If this election cements Reform UK’s status as a legitimate force in local government, it could mark a turning point not just for voters, but for investors, businesses, and national policymakers too.
There is a challenge in all this for Reform too, should they be successful. Being the party of opposition is much easier than actually administering government, and they have yet to be tested in office. History is littered with powerful opposition movements that have come unstuck when they reach power – just look at Syriza in Greece a decade ago or the Five Star Movement in Italy in 2018 – so the biggest test for Reform’s national ambitions might actually be the less glamorous reality of effective local and regional government.
There’s still a long road to the next general election, and plenty could disrupt Nigel Farage’s ambitions of a national breakthrough. But in some parts of the country, Reform UK isn’t just knocking at the door, they’ve already got the keys.
