As Keir Starmer heads to the Amazon for COP30, he’ll be hoping to prove that Britain can still lead on Net Zero, even as the politics back home grow more complicated.
Next week, some (but not all) world leaders will gather in Belém, Brazil, for COP30. After speculation that the Prime Minister may avoid the summit, last week Number 10 confirmed that Keir Starmer will attend – despite advisers warning that another overseas trip might not look great for a Prime Minister already accused of spending too much time abroad.
He’ll arrive in Brazil at a difficult moment. The UK’s once rock-solid political consensus on Net Zero is, to put it bluntly, in tatters. Poll-leading Reform UK has pledged to scrap Net Zero altogether and axe renewable subsidies. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are offering a “Reform-lite” approach – promising to repeal the Climate Change Act and dramatically slow Net Zero targets. Even the Green Party, under new leader Zack Polanski, is talking less about environmental issues and more about the cost of living and wealth taxes, in an effort to broaden its appeal to a wider base of voters.
Pressure is also coming from Labour’s own allies. In a report published last week, the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) called for a “clean power reset”, arguing the government should pause the gas carbon tax and prioritise cheaper bills over near-term targets. Add in industry jitters about whether Labour’s flagship “clean power by 2030” goal is achievable, and you can see why some in Labour fear any talk of a reset could soon sound like retreat.
Yet public support for climate action remains remarkably strong. Net Zero ranks as the fourth-highest policy priority in YouGov polling, and only 6% of Reform voters say the party’s stance on climate motivates their vote. Despite the noise, the appetite for action hasn’t disappeared.
So as Starmer looks ahead to Belém, the question is: what does he actually hope to achieve?
Reaffirming the UK’s Climate Leadership
For Starmer, simply showing up matters. Net Zero remains one of the few areas where the UK can credibly claim global leadership. With the US administration under Donald Trump set to boycott COP30, and the UN warning that the world is far off track with the target to keep the average temperature increase below 1.5°C, the presence of the Prime Minister of a major Western economy still counts.
One of Starmer’s key goals will be to reaffirm Britain’s leadership just as others are stepping back. With populist politics creeping into climate debates across the West, he’ll want to show that Britain is still serious and willing to lead by example, even if the domestic politics are getting trickier.
Reframing Net Zero as an Economic Opportunity
Expect less talk about saving the planet and more about powering the economy. Starmer knows the politics of Net Zero have shifted. The public still supports action, but voters also want to know who’s paying, and crucially, when they will see the benefits.
His message in Brazil will be an economic one: Net Zero isn’t a cost, it’s a catalyst. Labour’s mission for growth and industrial revival rests on the idea that climate policy is economic policy. Expect him to focus on jobs, lower bills for households and businesses, and the potential to reindustrialise British regions through clean energy investment.
Positioning Britain as a Hub for Investment
That growth story also doubles as a pitch to investors. COP30 gives Starmer a global stage to show that Britain is still open for green business – and, crucially, that it remains one of the few stable champions of clean investment.
With the US under President Trump doubling down on oil and gas, the contrast will be stark. Britain can’t match the scale of American or European subsidies, but it can compete on stability.
The message in Belém will be simple: if you want a dependable place to invest in clean energy, invest in Britain.
Reassuring The Labour Base
And then there’s the audience back home.
Starmer will hope his presence in Brazil steadies nerves within Labour. Talk of “recalibrating” the clean power mission has unsettled MPs and activists, many of whom see Ed Miliband’s work at DESNZ as one of the government’s few unambiguous successes.
By showing up in Belém, Starmer is sending a message: despite the noise from the right and the calls for pragmatism from allies, the direction hasn’t changed. The government may be recalibrating how it gets there, but the destination remains the same.
The first 18 months of the Labour Government have shown us that Starmer is often at his best on the international stage – calm, disciplined, diplomatic. But this summit is about more than Britain’s image abroad. It’s also a test of how domestic politics continue to shape the UK’s international priorities.
If Starmer can use COP30 to show that Britain remains committed to the Net Zero transition, and is prepared to stand by its principles on the global stage, he’ll not only return home stronger, but so will the UK’s claim to climate leadership.
